Time Series, Health & Evidence Synthesis · Time Series & Forecasting

Time series: state space models and Kalman filter

Public introduction · full guide in Eikos

Introduction

What this guide covers

Rigorous theoretical foundations, detailed algebraic derivations of prediction, updating and smoothing algorithms, structural component modeling and non-linear methodologies.

Overview

Topics covered

  • Introduction
  • State Space Models and the Kalman Filter
  • Philosophical and Methodological Transition: From the Classical Approach to the Space of States
  • General Mathematical Formulation of Linear State Space Models
  • Structural Assumptions about Stochastic Processes
  • Representation of Classical Time Series Models in State Space

Related concepts

Main connections

  • Variance & standard deviation
  • Time series & ARIMA
  • Linear algebra & matrices
  • Mean & expected value
  • Maximum likelihood estimation
  • Normal (Gaussian) distribution

Compatible notation

Mathematical sample in LaTeX

The expression is rendered accessibly, with its LaTeX source preserved below.

yt=Ztαt+dt+εt,εt∼𝒩(0,Ht)[Measurement Equation]
View LaTeX sourcey_t = Z_t \alpha_t + d_t + \varepsilon_t, \quad \varepsilon_t \sim \mathcal{N}(0, H_t) \quad \text{[Measurement Equation]}